The Coronavirus crisis has created a welcome opportunity for us to reassess the relationship b/w China and Africa on several levels – trade, supply chains, excessive borrowing and predatory lending, racism towards Africans.

Our eyes are now clear, but some years ago, in the haze of Chinese courtship of Africa, I argued against the conventional wisdom: Africa was not “rising”(what is the continent’s industrial productivity or a clearly noticeable worldview to drive a rise?)but only “emerging”.

Some of us argued that African countries are approaching their relationship with China on the wrong foot, that it provided an opportunity to learn some important lessons, but we were focused on the wrong things. We thought that seemingly cheap loans, trade (with trade deficits in favor of China), diplomatic summits in Beijing with African leaders lined up like turkeys on display, and fine words of solidarity meant that love was in the air. Today, many countries are reassessing their relationships with China, a world power no one can ignore.

China’s economy has been dented by COVID-19. Its $200 billion in trade with Africa is threatened, and more important, African countries can’t pay their $200 billion in debt to China and are asking for debt forgiveness. China is NOT in the business of debt forgiveness.

China is unlikely to be able to finance its Silk Road infrastructure initiatives in African countries in the immediate future, and the economies of African countries will be depressed after Covid. All in all, China’s economic adventure in Africa is now poised to be unprofitable

How did we get here? My purpose in this thread, which I promised to do, is to set out the back story on Africa and China, and perhaps we can use it as a guide to the future. The motto of my alma mats, the London School of Economics & Political Science is “rerum cognoscere causes” (to know the causes of things).

China should be a lesson for Africa at three fundamental levels. First, how communist China became a member of
UN only in 1971 and achieved global reckoning in 40 years. Second, how China achieved internal economic transformation, then globalized it to achieve dominance.